Thursday, October 9, 2008
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Significant National Weather West: A developing storm system will bring rain and mountain snow showers to the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Snow levels will drop below 3,000 feet from Wyoming to Oregon. Sustained winds of 20 to 40 mph are possible from northern Arizona and central California northward to Idaho, Wyoming and Oregon. Gusts could exceed 45 mph in a few locations this afternoon and tonight. A fire weather watch has been issued for the entire San Francisco and Monterey Bay region from this evening until Saturday evening. Tomorrow gusts over 55 mph are possible throughout the region. The windy conditions should spread southward into southern California, setting up a prolonged strong wind event through the weekend. The magnitude and drying effect of these winds will create favorable conditions for fire growth, especially over the interior valleys and mountain ranges. Midwest: A generally dry cold front will drop temperatures across the northern part of the region but produce only a few showers and thundershowers. Freeze warnings are in effect across the western portions of the Dakotas. South of the front temperatures will reach the lower 80s but north of the front highs will only reach the upper 40s. South: Yesterday’s storm moves to the South Carolina coast bringing rain and scattered thunderstorms to the Carolinas, eastern Georgia and Florida. This system may produce severe thunderstorms, hail, locally damaging winds and the possibility of an isolated tornado. Northeast: A cold front brings a few showers to the region this morning. Rainfall should be very light with most locations receiving less than one half inch. Skies will clear up during the afternoon hours with temperatures climbing into the 70s. (NOAA; National Weather Service; Various Media Sources) Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG) No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ) Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic/Caribbean: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours. Eastern Pacific: Hurricane Norbert At 5:00 am EDT the center of Hurricane Norbert was about 410 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico. Norbert is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph and a gradual turn toward the north is expected later today followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Friday with some increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph with higher gusts. Norbert is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles. Tropical Storm Odile The fifteenth tropical storm of the season has formed over the eastern Pacific. At 5:00 am EDT the center of Tropical Storm Odile was located about 315 southeast of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Odile is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph. A general west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On this forecast track the center of Tropical Storm Odile should move parallel to, but offshore of, the Pacific Coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center. Western Pacific: No current tropical cyclone warnings. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center) Earthquake Activity No new activity (FEMA HQ) Preliminary Damage Assessments No new activity (FEMA HQ) Wildfire Update National Fire Activity as of Wednesday, October 8, 2008: National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 1 Initial attack activity: Light (150 new fires) New large fires: 0 Uncontained large fires: 4 Large fires contained: 1 States with large fires: KY, CA (2), OR (2) (NIFC) Disaster Declaration Activity Florida: On October 8, 2008, the Governor of Florida requested a Major Disaster Declaration as a result of Hurricane Ike, beginning September 8, 2008, and continuing. The Governor is specifically requesting Public Assistance for 6 counties (Collier, Escambia, Gulf, Manatee, Santa Rosa, and Sarasota) and Hazard Mitigation for the entire State. Puerto Rico: On October 8, 2008, Amendment #2 for FEMA-1798-DR for Puerto Rico adds 11 municipalities for Individual Assistance and Public Assistance, 7 municipalities for Public Assistance and 6 municipalities for Public Assistance (already designated for Individual Assistance) North Carolina: On October 8, 2008, the President signed FEMA-1801-DR-North Carolina as a result of severe storms and flooding associated with Tropical Storm Hanna, September 4-15, 2008. (FEMA HQ)
Saturday, October 4, 2008
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Significant National Weather West: The storm system producing precipitation across Washington, Oregon and northern California will push southward as far as Los Angeles and eastward across the Great Basin and into the northern and central Rockies. By tonight, snow levels will range from 5500 feet in the Washington Cascades to 7000 feet in the southern Sierra and will be lowering to 6000 feet in the Great Basin. Some higher elevations will see 2 to 4 inches of rain with locally higher amounts. Snowfall in the highest elevations of the Cascades and Sierra could top 1 foot. The next front moving into the Pacific Northwest, by late Monday, could lower snow the snow level to 5000 feet Midwest: A dry stationary front over the region will keep the region precipitation free for most of the day. However, precipitation will spread southeastward out of the Dakotas into northern Illinois tonight. A tight pressure gradient will bring strong southerly winds to the western Plains. Morning lows will be in the upper 20s and low 30s across northern Minnesota and in the lower 30s across much of Wisconsin and Michigan. Frost and freeze warnings extend from central Minnesota to northern Ohio. Tomorrow, rain will slide eastward from the Dakotas to the Great Lakes north of a developing warm front. The central Plains will see an increase in thunderstorm activity. Northeast: Circulation on the backside of the low off Newfoundland will produce just a few showers along the border. The remainder of the region will have nice fall weather. Morning lows will range from the 30s and lower 40s over the interior Northeast to the upper 50s in Tidewater Virginia. Some frost is possible in Upstate New York and interior New England. South: Under a ridge of high pressure, most of the region will have clear skies. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast over southern Florida and isolated thunderstorms are possible in the Ozarks. Tomorrow, thunderstorms are forecast across western Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. (NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources) Federal / State Response for Hurricane Ike FEMA Region VI As of 03 Oct 08, it is estimated that approximately 48.2 percent of the oil production in the Gulf is shut-in, 626,045 BPD (NICC) As of 03 Oct 08, it is estimated that approximately 44.6 percent of the natural gas production is shut-in, 3,303 (NICC) USACE teams completed all field work and are demobilizing (Austin JFO) Louisiana GOSHEP activated at Level III (Emergency Operations) 5 fatalities; no injuries 4 shelters; population 166 (NSS) 11 DRCs and 8 MDRCs located throughout affected areas Texas SEOC activated at Level I, 24/7 47 fatalities; no injuries 13 Shelters; population of 1,981 (NSS) 2,500 customers remain without power (DOE as of 6:00 p.m. EDT Oct 3) 3 state-run PODS remain open; FEMA continues to supply product to State run Resource Staging Areas (RSAs) 15 DRCs and 24 MDRCs (includes 3 MRICs), located throughout affected areas (FEMA DAD) Preliminary Damage Assessments completed in 14 counties and scheduled/continuing in 12 counties (Austin JFO) Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic/Caribbean: A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms between Honduras and western Cuba. Surface pressures are not falling and additional development is not anticipated as the system drifts westward during the next couple of days. Showers and thunderstorms over the Windward Islands and adjacent Atlantic are associated with a westward moving tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low. This activity is expected to move westward with no development. Eastern Pacific: Hurricane Marie At 5:00 am EDT, the center of Hurricane Marie was located about 840 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Marie is drifting to the north for the past several hours but is expected to resume a slow west-northwestward motion over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph with higher gusts. Little change is expected during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E The fifteenth tropical depression of the season develops south of the Pacific coast of Mexico. At 5:00 am EDT, the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located about 240 miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. The depression is nearly stationary. A gradual turn toward the northwest and west-northwest is expected today and Sunday. On the forecasted track, the center of the depression should remain well south of Mexico and move parallel to the coastline. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and the depression could become a tropical storm later today. Western Pacific: No tropical cyclone activity affecting United States Territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center) Earthquake Activity No new activity (FEMA HQ) Preliminary Damage Assessments No new activity (FEMA HQ) Wildfire Update National Fire Activity as of Friday, October 03, 2008: National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 2 Initial attack activity: Light (67) New large fires: 2 Uncontained large fires: 6 Large fires contained: 1 States with large fires: AZ (1), CA (2), ID (1) and OR (3) (NIFC) Disaster Declaration Activity On October 3, 2008 the President signed FEMA-1799-DR for the State of New Hampshire for Severe Storms and Flooding occurring September 6 - 7, 2008, specifically for Public Assistance for Hillsborough County and Hazard Mitigation statewide. On October 3, 2008 the President signed FEMA-1800-DR for the State of Illinois for Severe Storms and Flooding occurring September 13, 2008 and continuing, specifically for Individual Assistance for Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kan, LaSalle and Will Counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide. FEMA-1791-DR-TX was amended effective October 3, 2008, closing the incident period for this disaster effective October 2, 2008. FEMA-1794-DR-MS was amended effective October 2, 2008, adding Adams and Wilkinson Counties for Individual Assistance (already designated for Public Assistance). FEMA-1795-DR-IN was amended effective October 3, 2008, adding Clark, Crawford, Dearborn, Jackson, Knox, Lawrence, Martin, Pike, Spencer and Switzerland Counties for Individual Assistance. (FEMA HQ)
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Significant National Weather Northeast Frost and freeze advisories remain in effect from Pennsylvania north to Vermont through Wednesday morning. City temperatures should drop into the lower 40s to near 50 degrees by morning. The region will be sunny but cold today. Midwest Rain and showers are forecast from Minnesota and Wisconsin to Missouri and Illinois. A few thundershowers are also possible in southern sections of Missouri and Illinois Tuesday afternoon and evening. South Heavy rain, hail and damaging winds are possible in eastern Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, western Mississippi and western Tennessee. Florida is expecting a few thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. West A storm system moves into the Northwest tonight bringing rain and showers from Idaho west to Washington and Oregon, and into Montana and the northern Rockies during the day Tuesday. A few inches of snow are possible overnight in the Cascades, at levels around 3,500 feet. (NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources) Federal / State Response for Hurricane Ike FEMA Region VI Update Federal Priorities include the following: Ensure the safety of all deployed personnel, support facilities, housing, public infrastructure restoration, and debris management. As of Oct 6, 2008, nearly all petroleum pipelines had resumed operations. DOE reports 600,679 barrels per day (46.2 percent capacity out) of the Gulf’s crude oil production remains shut-in: This is equivalent to 46.2 percent of the Gulf’s crude production. Gulf natural gas production shut-in is 3,001 million cubic feet per day, which is equivalent to 40.6 of the Gulf’s gas production. 94 out of 694 Gulf production platforms remain evacuated, which is 13.5 percent of the platforms. There were 39 major natural gas processing plants in the path of Hurricane Ike. As of October 6, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has confirmed 5 plants remain shut down, which include those plants still impacted from Gustav. In addition, EIA reports 30 plants have resumed operations at reduced or normal levels. Reportedly, three plants have the capability to restart once upstream gas flow are sufficient. As of October 6, some operational limitations still existed on some critical waterways. These included draft restrictions in Galveston and Texas City, TX . (TX JFO, SitRep #24 Oct 4; TX JFO IAP, Oct 6; DOE SitRep #23 Oct 6) Louisiana LA Department of Natural Resources reported 70,714 barrels per day of the normal LA oil production has been restored. This equates to 45 percent restoration. The restored natural gas production estimate is 749 million cubic feet per day or 46 percent of the daily natural gas production capacity. As of October 5, over 5 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) was released or delivered due to hurricanes Gustav and Ike. Operational restrictions still exist on Lake Charles, LA waterways, and nighttime draft restrictions on portions of the Lower Mississippi River. GOSHEP remains activated at Level III (Emergency Operations). The National Shelter System (NSS) reports three shelters remain open with a population of 136. Ten MDRCs / MRICs and ten DRCs are open for registration intake. Texas The State Emergency Operations Center (SEOC) remains activated at Level I, 24/7. CenterPoint reports electricity has been restored to all customers that can receive power. Currently, CenterPoint is working to restore power to customer locations that sustained damage. The National Shelter System (NSS) reports eleven shelters remain open with a population of 1,398. Eight MDRCs / MRICs and sixteen DRCs are open for registration intake. Fourteen Public Assistance (PA) Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs) have been completed, with twelve PA PDAs scheduled. Six Individual Assistance (IA) PDAs have been completed, with one IA PDA scheduled. IA PDAs will be completed later today, October 7 (FEMA Region VI). (NSS Report, Oct 6; FEMA HQ; TX JFO, SitRep #24 Oct 4; TX JFO IAP, Oct 6; DOE SitRep #23 Oct 6; DOE, SitRep #23, Oct 6; FEMA-DAD) Puerto Rico Flooding FEMA Region II Update A Disaster Recovery Center opened in the Municipality of Humacao. Four shelters remain open with a total population of 42. (PR JFO SitRep #12 Oct 6) Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG) No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ) Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic/Caribbean: Tropical Storm Marco At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located about 105 miles southeast of Tuxpan, Mexico. Marco is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph. On this forecast track the center of Marco should be very near the coast of Mexico by late this morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible this morning, and Marco could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast. Eastern Pacific: Hurricane Norbert At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Norbert was located about 315 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja, California, moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph. This general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the center. Norbert becomes the seventh hurricane of the east Pacific. Tropical Weather Outlook 92E - The area of low pressure located about 100 miles south of the coast of El Salvador continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity well to west of the center of circulation. Upper-level winds could become a little more favorable for development during the next couple of days and this system still has the potential to become a tropical depression as it remains nearly stationary. Western Pacific: No tropical cyclone activity affecting United States Territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center) Earthquake Activity No new activity (FEMA HQ) Preliminary Damage Assessments No new activity (FEMA HQ) Wildfire Update National Fire Activity as of Monday, October 6, 2008 was light with 24 new fires. The National Wildfire Preparedness Level is 2. There were no new large fires reported or contained. Four uncontained large fires continue in California and Oregon. Fire Weather: A high pressure ridge will build over the West with warmer and drier conditions. Offshore flow will develop across southern California, while relative humidity will gradually increase in the Southeast. (NIFC) Disaster Declaration Activity No new activity (FEMA HQ)
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