Friday, November 6, 2009
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) National Weather West: A frontal system is producing rain, mountain snow and strong winds from Washington south to central California and as far east as Montana. Rainfall amounts in the higher elevations of Washington and Oregon could be as much as 4 inches with just a few tenths of an inch falling in the San Francisco Bay area. Snow levels will range from 2,500 feet in Washington to 5,500 feet in northern California by tonight. Gusty winds and high surf are forecast for coastal areas from Washington to northern California. Additional systems and precipitation will move ashore through the weekend.Midwest: The region will be dry with unusually warm temperatures. Highs will range from the 40s in Michigan to the low 80s in southwest Kansas. On Sunday, a cold front will move eastward across the region bringing a chance of showers.South: Under a large high pressure area the region will be dry except for a few showers along the southeast coast of Florida. Low temperatures (30s and 40s) are forecast across Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas this morning. On Sunday, rain and thunderstorms are forecast for the Gulf Coasts of Texas and Louisiana from moisture being pulled out of the Gulf of Mexico.Northeast: There will be a few residual showers in Upstate New York and New England from the storm low off the Canadian Maritimes. The low will produce gusty northerly winds along the coast from the Mid-Atlantic to Maine. The region will be generally dry through Monday. (NOAA s National Weather Service, Various Media Sources) Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG) No activity.(FEMA HQ) Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic Tropical Depression IDA As of 4:00 a.m. EST, on November 6, 2009, the center of Tropical Depression Ida was located about 715 miles SSW of Key West, FL (1,150 miles SSE of New Orleans, LA). The depression is moving toward the north near 6 mph. this general motion is expected to continue with a slight increase in forward speed over the next couple of days. On the forecast track the center of Ida will move across eastern Honduras today and emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is expected today as the center of Ida remains over land. Some strengthening is likely after Ida emerges over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight or early Saturday. Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.Eastern Pacific Shower and thunderstorm activity remains minimal in association with an area of low pressure located about 230 miles south of the Mexico/Guatemala border. Any development of this system will be slow to occur over the next day or so before upper-level winds become less favorable for development. There is a low chance (less than 30 percent) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves slowly northward or northeastward.Central Pacific No tropical cyclones are expected through Saturday evening.Western Pacific No activity.(NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center) Earthquake Activity At 1:12 a.m. EST, November 6, 2009, a magnitude 3.4 earthquake occurred approximately 4 miles north-northwest of Dyersburg, TN (74 miles north-northeast of Memphis, TN) at a depth of 6.0 miles. There have been no reports of injuries or damages. (FEMA HQ) Preliminary Damage Assessments No new activity (FEMA HQ) Wildfire Update National Preparedness Level: 1 National Fire Activity as of Thursday, November 5, 2009 Initial attack activity: Light (146 new fires) New large fires: 1 Large fires contained: 1 Uncontained large fires: 1 States affected: AZ, CA (NIFC) Disaster Declaration Activity No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Georgia Severe Storms and Flooding
Major Disaster Declaration number 1858 declared on Sep 24, 2009
Montana Eagle Mount Fire
Fire Management Assistance Declaration number 2837 declared on Sep 04, 2009
Arizona Twin Fire
Fire Management Assistance Declaration number 2840 declared on Oct 03, 2009
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) National Weather West: A strong frontal system will move ashore producing heavy precipitation and gusty winds from Washington to central California. Rainfall totals will range from a few tenths of an inch near San Francisco and an inch or more in the coastal areas of Washington and Oregon to four to five inches in the Olympic and Cascade Mountain ranges. Snow levels in the Cascades will start out around 6,000 feet lowering to near 3,500 feet tomorrow and dropping further during the weekend. Gusty winds between 50 and 60 mph are forecast for the coast and higher elevations of the Pacific Northwest. Additional weather systems and heavy precipitation are forecast to impact the region through the weekend.Midwest: Under high pressure much of the region will have clear skies. The only significant weather will be light rain or snow showers across Michigan and northeast Ohio from a weak frontal system over the Great Lakes.South: High pressure will dominate the region over the next two days with clear skies and little or no precipitation. The exception will be south Florida where a weak front will produce a few showers and thunderstorms.Northeast: An upper trough combined with a rapidly developing area of low pressure off the East Coast will produce a wintry mix for most of the region. Interior locations from West Virginia to Maine will see a mixture of scattered rain and snow showers. Significant accumulations of snow will be limited to a few inches over the higher terrain. Rain showers are forecast for the coastal areas from the mid-Atlantic to New England. Gusty northwesterly winds are forecast tonight through tomorrow for much of New England especially coastal areas due to the developing low off the coast. Temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees below average for the next few days. Highs will only reach into the 40s over interior areas to 50s along the coast. The precipitation will taper off by tomorrow except for coastal New England. (NOAA s National Weather Service, Various Media Sources) Region VI Flooding in Texas and Louisiana Region VI RRCC is at Watch / Steady State and monitoring. Texas and Louisiana State liaison officers are on standby. IA and PA PDA teams remain on standby for both states. There have been no requests for Federal assistance for either state.Texas Heavy thunderstorms passed through eastern Texas on October 29 and 30th causing minor to moderate flooding on the Sabine, Neches and Trinity rivers in eastern Texas. The main reservoirs in the middle Sabine River are full and contributing to the higher flow in the river system. The Toledo Bend Reservoir is falling due to current release operations. The Toledo Bend release operations continue to drive water levels on the lower Sabine River. Major flooding is forecast along the Sabine River in Deweyville, TX (Newton County) on Saturday, Nov 7. Some neighborhoods in low lying areas may be inundated with water. There is one shelter open in Deweyville with 21 occupants. Seventeen hundred (1,700) gallons of water has been delivered to the Community of Deweyville. The Texas State Operations Center (SOC) is at Level I (Emergency Conditions) for border security operations and flood response in Newton and Jasper Counties.Louisiana On October 28, 2009, severe storms produced heavy rain, wind, and tornadoes across the north and west portions of Louisiana. On October 30th, the Governor declared a statewide State of Emergency. Flooding of low lying areas has been reported in Bossier, Caddo, Desoto, Webster and Ouachita Parishes. Once the water recedes each parish will determine the need for PDA s. The USCG has closed 111 miles of the Ouachita River from the Arkansas/Louisiana Border to near Columbia, LA to all commercial and residential traffic due to extreme high water and strong current conditions. The Ouachita River at Monroe is above major flood stage and expected to crest near 48 feet on November 9. Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG) No activity.(FEMA HQ) Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic Tropical Storm Ida As of 4:00 a.m. EST, on November 5, 2009, the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located about 815 miles south of Key West, FL (1,275 miles south-southeast of New Orleans, LA). The storm is moving toward the northwest at 7 mph and a gradual turn to the north-northwest with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track Ida should make landfall along the east coast of Nicaragua this morning and move across portions of eastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph with higher gusts. Ida could briefly reach hurricane strength before making landfall this morning. Weakening is expected once Ida moves inland over Nicaragua later today. Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles.Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.Eastern Pacific Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure is located about 250 miles south of the Mexico/Guatemala border. The upper-level wind environment is becoming less conducive for development and there is a low chance (less than 30 percent) of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.Central Pacific No tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday morning.Western Pacific No activity.(NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center) Earthquake Activity At 10:16 p.m. EST, November 4, 2009, a 4.7 magnitude earthquake occurred 152 miles south-southwest of Nikolski, AK (192 miles east-southeast of Atka, AK) at a depth of 6.2 miles. No reports of injury, damage or tsunami.(USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program) Preliminary Damage Assessments No new activity (FEMA HQ) Disaster Declaration Activity No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED) Significant National Weather South:Under high pressure, the region will be mostly sunny today from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Carolinas. Showers and thunderstorms are possible from southern Texas eastward to southern Louisiana due to an upper-level disturbance moving out of northern Mexico. Flood Warnings remain in effect for several rivers throughout Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana.West:Rain and mountain snow is forecast for portions of the Pacific Northwest today due to an onshore flow affecting the region. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for portions of the Idaho panhandle, higher elevations and passes of northwest Montana and northeast Washington until later this morning.Northeast:Mostly sunny skies and above average temperatures are forecast throughout the region today.Midwest: Temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above average are forecast for most of the region today. (NOAA s National Weather Service, Various Media Sources) Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG) No activity. (FEMA HQ) Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic Hurricane IDA At 4:00 am EST, November 8, 2009, the center of Hurricane Ida was located about 95 miles SSW of the western tip of Cuba. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph. This general heading, with an increase in forward speed, is expected over the next 48 hours. On this track, Ida is forecast to move through the Yucatan Channel and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph with higher gusts. Ida is a category 1 hurricane. Some additional strengthening is expected and Ida could become a category 2 hurricane today or tonight. Gradual weakening is expected to begin late Monday.Eastern Pacific Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hoursCentral PacificNo tropical cyclones are expected through Monday afternoon.Western Pacific No activity threatening United States Territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center) Earthquake Activity No new activity (FEMA HQ) Preliminary Damage Assessments No new activity (FEMA HQ) Wildfire Update National Preparedness Level: 1 National Fire Activity as of Saturday, November 7, 2009 Initial attack activity: Light (46 new fires) New large fires: 0 Large fires contained: 0 Uncontained large fires: 0 States affected: None (NIFC) Disaster Declaration Activity No new activity (FEMA HQ)
